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Aflac Incorporated

AFL Financial Insurance Life

Aflac Incorporated’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $17.2 billion, down 9.31% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
−31.0%
EPS
−80.3%
Free cash flow
−4.39%
Total debt
+2.48%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

125.97 0.67 +0.53%
Market cap
$63.3B
P/E
18.3×
Fwd P/E
17.4×
Dividend yield
1.91%
F-score
4/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $125.97 the price implies 18.9% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 11.5% a year over the last ten years, 15.8% over the last five. The price asks for about twice its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 16.2% over ten years; the price implies 16.4% for good.

In December 2017 the price assumed 18.8% a year; Aflac Incorporated went on to grow the dividend a share −10.4% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
18.9%
Last 5 years, reported
15.8%
Last 10 years, reported
11.5%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
18.9% a year for ten years
$125.97
today’s price
Its base case
11.5% a year for five years, then 6.9%
$61.62
51.1% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Aflac Incorporated’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 18.9% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Aflac Incorporated’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.55 × equity premium 4.5% = 6.8% cost of equity; after-tax cost of debt 2.4%; weighted, 6.2%.

Use 6.2%
Base case value per share $61.62 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $125.97 market price per share
Below today’s price 51.1% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$24.61 10 years of dividends+$37.02 terminal value=$61.62 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Insurance Life).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 18.28× 13.30× 11.41× 60% above 11.34× 61% above
P/FCF 24.15× 19.18× 12.78× 89% above 7.43× 225% above
P/B 2.14× 2.17× 1.73× 24% above 1.08× 98% above
EV/EBITDA — 8.45× 7.55× — 3.38× —
EV/Sales — 2.81× 2.21× — 3.90× —
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
7.46×12.57×17.69×22.80×10Y avg 12.78×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

AFL trades at 24.15× P/FCF, against a 10-year average of 12.78× (range 5.33×–24.15×). That is dearer than 100% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $66.63 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.