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Market map S&P 500, sized by market cap, shaded by year-to-date change

Estimated U.S. inflation rose to about 4% in the year through October, outpacing average hourly pay growth of roughly 3% and eroding workers’ purchasing power. Airfares, car repairs, hospital services, electricity, and restaurant meals saw especially sharp increases, while grocery prices rose about 5%. Rising energy costs are contributing to higher prices across transportation and food. Hotter-than-expected inflation has raised expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, which could increase borrowing costs.

October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, above the 0.3% forecast, while core CPI increased 0.3%, also hotter than expected. Food, housing, transportation, and medical costs contributed to the gains. Energy inflation cooled from September. The report reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, though annual inflation figures were unavailable because of the prior government shutdown.

Hotter-than-expected US inflation lifted Treasury yields and the dollar, pressured stocks and gold, and strengthened bets on a half-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Oil fell as officials played down further military action against Iran. Investors also watched AI-related earnings and Anthropic’s planned IPO amid concerns about AI spending and valuations.

October CPI rose 0.4%, above forecasts, while core CPI increased 0.3%, also exceeding expectations. Broad price gains in services and goods strengthen expectations of a December Fed rate hike and keep a larger 50-basis-point move in play, though markets see a 25-point increase as more likely. Persistent inflation could keep rates elevated into next year; upcoming wholesale-price data will inform estimates of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Anthropic plans to sell 825 million shares at $70–$78 each, implying a fully diluted valuation of about $1.3 trillion to $1.45 trillion and raising up to $64.35 billion. Technology companies have separately committed $26 billion to buy non-voting shares. The proposed Nasdaq listing comes amid investor concerns about AI valuations, data-center expansion and Anthropic’s reported $895.4 billion in committed spending. The company reported revenue of $33.2 billion for the first nine months of the year, up 1,206%.

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