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Market map S&P 500, sized by market cap, shaded by year-to-date change

Asia led a tech rout as fears over murky, debt-fueled AI financing intensified, though the selloff cooled in later US and European hours. AI-linked bonds, including CoreWeave, traded near distressed levels while credit protection costs for major AI firms hit fresh highs. Equity losses in Asia were large (South Korea’s KOSPI down about 20% in a week; Japan’s Nikkei ~5% lower); US and UK equities were mixed to firmer (Nasdaq barely up; Dow around 1% higher; S&P 500 up ~0.3%). Safe-haven demand sent US Treasuries rally, with the 10-year yield sliding to about 5.08%. US producer prices rose more than expected, oil rebounded, and gold/silver advanced. The narrative centers on debt-funded AI investment, potential spillovers to credit ratings, and how long tech rotations may endure ahead of earnings and policy events.

Inflation data revived expectations for a late-October Fed hike, with odds rising from ~22% to ~54%. Gas prices remain a key inflation driver, helping September's 3.7% YoY CPI and pushing energy costs into broader prices. Expensive oil and costly AI data-center builds add to inflation, making these inputs feel baked into prices even as the Fed emphasizes core readings. Fed officials say higher rates are necessary to cool demand, but ING economist James Knightley argues rate hikes will have limited impact on these two drivers. He notes the ball is out of the Fed's hands on foreign-policy factors like the Strait of Hormuz, while wage growth at ~3% could dampen inflation over the medium term. With upcoming retail sales and wholesale data, markets remain on edge for the next decision, and wage dynamics may shape the inflation path ahead.

Apple closes in on Nvidia as it crosses a $5 trillion market cap, underscoring its ascent even as Nvidia stocks retreat. The iPhone Duo, Apple’s first foldable, opens for preorder Friday and will go on sale Oct. 23. Tim Cook says Apple Intelligence has regulatory approval in China, with a test version expected later in October, signaling a broader AI push in a key market. Apple is set to report fiscal Q4 earnings on Nov. 2, offering a gauge on iPhone demand and AI-driven growth. The company also expanded hardware with the HomeView smart display, an updated Apple TV 4K, and the second-gen HomePod mini, deepening Siri AI across devices. Despite stock gains, retail sentiment around AAPL remains bearish, and Nvidia’s stock slump keeps the gap narrow.

Global stocks sold off as hotter US inflation data sharpened expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike, hitting tech shares hardest. Nvidia fell about 2.2%, with AMD and Marvell down around 4% as investors dumped AI bets. The Nasdaq slid about 0.3% while the Dow rose on rotation into established stocks. Europe steadied with less tech exposure. In Asia, Seoul’s Kospi dropped more than 7% and Tokyo nearly 5% lower as chipmakers led losses. US CPI rose 3.7% in September and wholesale inflation jumped 6.3%, increasing rate-hike bets and pressuring AI funding. Bond yields moved as investors sought safer assets; oil rose and currencies shifted on risk sentiment.

Chip stocks slid as financing costs for AI infrastructure rose and concerns about funding sustainability outweighed strong demand signals. Saxo Bank warned a financing squeeze could eventually curb semiconductor suppliers if customers slow capex, noting CoreWeave yields near 15% as a sign of investor re-pricing, not necessarily imminent default. Nvidia, AMD, Micron, and SanDisk led declines despite TSMC reporting a robust Q3 and guiding higher Q4 revenue. Investors are shifting from announcing large infrastructure bets to evaluating how profits and cash flow will follow demand. If borrowing costs stay high, effects could spill into industrial equipment, power infrastructure and construction, depressing broader capex beyond chipmakers.

Also on 15 October

14 October