Liberty Media’s Liberty Formula One Series A shares (FWONA) represent a high-octane play on the global motorsport phenomenon that is Formula 1 racing. Owned by media mogul John Malone’s Liberty Media empire, this tracking stock gives investors exposure to the Formula One Group’s commercial rights, media deals, and event hosting without the full conglomerate baggage. As F1’s popularity surges—fueled by Netflix’s Drive to Survive series since 2019 and expanding race calendars—the company’s fundamentals tell a story of resilience, recovery, and room to run. With the stock trading near its recent highs and analysts eyeing significant upside, let’s break down the numbers, trends, and what they mean for everyday investors like you and me.
A Rollercoaster Ride: Revenue and Profitability Recovery
Formula 1’s business model hinges on revenue from broadcasting rights, sponsorships, and live events—making it hypersensitive to global disruptions. Back in 2017, Liberty Media shelled out about $4.4 billion to acquire commercial rights to F1 from CVC Capital, a transformative deal that kicked off this tracking stock’s modern era. Fast forward to 2020, and COVID-19 slammed the brakes: revenue cratered 43% to $1.145 billion from $2.022 billion in 2019, as races went spectator-free and travel bans bit. Gross margins flipped to a brutal -23.6%, and earnings per share (EPS) plunged to -$2.57.
But here’s the acceleration: post-pandemic rebound was fierce. Revenue roared back 86% to $2.136 billion in 2021, then climbed another 20.5% to $2.573 billion in 2022—the highest in the data. This tracks directly with F1’s return to packed grandstands and new markets like Miami and Las Vegas races added in recent years. Gross margins expanded from a measly 5.2% in 2018 to a healthier 17.9% by 2022, signaling better cost control on hosting and logistics. Why does this matter? Margins reflect operational efficiency; in an events-driven business like F1, improving them means more profit drops to the bottom line without relying solely on top-line growth.
Profitability flipped the script in 2022: EBT swung from -$157 million to +$251 million (a 260% improvement), while net income rocketed from -$190 million to +$558 million (a staggering 394% turnaround). EPS followed suit, jumping from -$0.82 to +$2.15. Return on equity (ROE), a key gauge of how well shareholder money is deployed, turned positive at 8.4%—up from -3%—showing the company finally generating solid returns on its equity base of around $6.9 billion. Cash flow per share echoed this strength, rising to $2.29 from $2.07 in 2021, with free cash flow hitting $534 million. These metrics correlate tightly with F1’s global boom: more viewers (over 1.5 billion annually now), richer media deals (like the 2021 U.S. broadcasting pact), and sponsor influx.
Recent years show some choppiness—2023 net income at breakeven and 2024 EPS dipping to -$0.13—but operating cash flow trends remain positive where reported, hinting at underlying stability amid one-off items.
Balance Sheet Strengthens Amid Debt Paydown
Liberty Formula One has methodically deleveraged, a smart move for a capital-intensive business prone to event risks. Total debt dropped 41.5% from $5.039 billion in 2018 to $2.947 billion by 2022, with net debt slashing 75% to $1.214 billion. This matters because lower debt reduces interest burdens (EBT margin improved to 9.8% in 2022) and frees cash for growth—like circuit upgrades or digital expansions. Shareholders’ equity grew 24.5% to $6.91 billion over the same stretch, bolstered by retained earnings from that 2022 profit surge. Book value per share held steady around $28-30, offering a tangible floor for valuation.
Working capital ballooned to $1.19 billion by 2022, up from negative $50 million in 2018, providing liquidity buffers. ROA ticked positive at 4.9% in 2022, underscoring efficient asset use. No capex per share stands out oddly (mostly zero), but depreciation of ~$362-460 million annually reflects heavy investment in F1 infrastructure that’s now paying off.
Stock Price Mirrors the Track: Steady Gains with Upside
FWONA’s price action has hugged the fundamentals beautifully. Lows climbed from $17 in 2016 to $55.86 in 2024 (over 229% total), while highs soared from $32 to $87.42 (174% gain). This isn’t random—stock peaks aligned with revenue highs post-2020, like $61.95 high in 2022 amid record sales. Price-to-book (PB) ratio hovered around 1.7-1.8x, reasonable for a growth asset trading near book value, while constant PE of ~35x suggests market pricing in future earnings power despite past losses.
From the most recent close, the stock sits about 11% below its 2024 high but 40% above its 2024 low—resilient amid broader market noise. Compared to revenue per share (up 39.6% to $11.04 in 2022) and FCF/share (doubling to $2.29), the price appreciation feels justified, rewarding patient holders through the COVID dip.
Insider Activity: All Gas, No Brakes on Selling
A yellow flag here: zero insider buys across 2025-2026 data, but sells totaling over $60 million. May 2025 saw heavy volume—a director dumping 150,000 shares, the CAO/PFO offloading 9,500, and others. This continued into November/December, with that same director selling another 357,000+ shares across transactions. Directors like those with IDs tied to multiple sales dominate, cashing out at averages around $95-100/share.
Insiders selling isn’t always bearish (could be diversification or options exercises), but the one-sided flow—no buys—warrants watch. It contrasts bullish fundamentals, possibly signaling caution on near-term volatility from F1’s seasonal cash flows or regulatory scrutiny (like the 2021 EU antitrust probe into F1 deals, now resolved favorably).
Analyst Crystal Ball: Bullish on F1’s Global Lap
Analysts are revving engines for FWONA. The consensus mean target implies about 47% upside from recent levels, with the high end pointing to 72% potential and even the low at 19% above current. This optimism ties to F1’s tailwinds: the 2026 engine regs promising closer racing, potential U.S. race additions (F1 hosted three in 2025), and media rights renewals up for grabs post-2025.
Projections show EPS stabilizing—0.79 in 2023 after 2022’s 2.15, dipping to -0.13 in 2024 (perhaps accounting quirks)—but revenue blanks suggest analysts expect continued mid-teens growth from $2.57 billion peaks, driven by Asia/Latin America expansion and esports. ROA at 3.4% projected for 2023 reinforces efficiency gains. If F1 sustains 5-10 million new fans yearly via streaming, sponsorships could swell 15-20%, juicing margins toward 25%.
Risks and the Long Straightaway
Not all smooth sailing. F1 relies on a handful of teams/promoters, and geopolitical flares (e.g., Russia ban in 2022) or recessions could stall travel spending. Debt, while down, still looms at ~$3 billion equivalent, and zero capex reporting raises questions on future investments. Shares outstanding ticked up 1% to 234 million, mildly dilutive.
Yet, correlations scream opportunity: stock gains track revenue/profit inflection perfectly, and F1’s cultural cachet (think celebrity-studded paddocks) positions it beyond autosport. For retail investors, FWONA offers growth at a PB under 2x, with analysts’ 47% mean upside dwarfing insider sales noise. If you’re bullish on entertainment globalization, this could lap the market— just buckle up for seasonal turns.
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