Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) Earnings & Analysis

Latest quarter

Duke Energy reported Q2 revenue of $7.6 billion, below the consensus estimate of $7.7 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.43 exceeded the consensus of $1.29.

Revenue rose from $7.5 billion a year earlier, while diluted EPS increased to $1.38 from $1.25. CFO Brian Savoy said customer growth and infrastructure investment lifted electric utilities and infrastructure earnings, partly offset by higher depreciation and interest expense. Gas utilities and infrastructure was largely flat, he said.

Savoy also attributed an increase in the other segment to lower holding-company interest expense and higher market returns. He said favorable weather contributed to results through midyear.

Duke’s operating margin rose to 27.0% from 24.4% a year earlier. Free cash flow was −$1.4 billion, compared with −$417.0 million in the prior-year quarter.

Adjusted EPS is the figure the consensus estimates, not the GAAP EPS above.

What management said on the call

On the Q2 call, CFO Brian Savoy said Duke had secured 7.8 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers. He said the contracts include minimum-take provisions and that spreading fixed costs over a larger customer base would benefit existing customers. Duke continued to expect the remainder of its 15.4 gigawatt pipeline to convert to agreements by the first half of 2027, he said.

CEO Harry Sideris said newly signed agreements had moved the Carolinas load forecast to its high-load scenario. He said Duke was on track to add 15 gigawatts of generation capacity by 2031, with approximately five gigawatts of gas capacity under construction. Savoy said additional contracts could require further generation and transmission investment, particularly in Indiana and Florida.

Sideris said Duke had reached a settlement with North Carolina public staff and other parties in the Duke Energy Carolinas rate case. He said the settlement included a 9.8% return on equity and that discussions toward a similar framework for Duke Energy Progress were ongoing. For a Florida battery project, he said Duke planned to recognize tax credits in one year to offset a customer base-rate increase in 2027.

Asked about construction constraints, Sideris said Duke was using a common contractor and materials across Carolina sites and monitoring progress with AI tools. On new nuclear, he said Duke was discussing how to offset financial and cost-overrun risks for customers and investors, adding that “we’re not in a position yet to make a decision on new nuclear.”

Looking to the second half, Savoy said Duke might reinvest some weather benefits in its generating facilities. Asked about equity funding, he said Duke could continue using its equity programs but had no large block equity issuance planned in its five-year plan.

Guidance

In its November results release, Duke Energy narrowed its FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.70 to $6.80, from its previous range of $6.55 to $6.80.