| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2021 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2020 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2019 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2017 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Q'23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 15.37 | 17.13 | 6.02 | 6.03 |
| Receivables | 21.93 | 20.91 | 33.25 | 39.30 |
| Inventory | 23.06 | 22.49 | 36.58 | 43.32 |
| Other | 10.68 | 18.12 | 7.69 | 7.32 |
| 75.47 | 82.45 | 87.87 | 100.18 |
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Q'23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 2.85 | 2.81 | 8.11 | 10.62 |
| ST’ Debt | 4.17 | 4.17 | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| Other | 9.87 | 14.35 | 4.09 | 4.62 |
| 30.09 | 32.69 | 33.63 | 35.01 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 25.05 | 29.16 | 30.70 | — |
—
|
| ’22 | 22.48 | 26.16 | 29.15 | 31.70 |
109.50
|
| ’21 | 21.00 | 21.97 | 20.33 | 24.22 |
87.51
|
| ’20 | 17.14 | 18.58 | 15.35 | 8.05 |
59.12
|
| ’19 | 14.83 | 17.81 | 18.39 | 19.48 |
70.52
|
| ’18 | 8.77 | 9.92 | 10.69 | 13.54 |
42.92
|
| ’17 | 10.09 | 11.29 | 8.30 | 3.40 |
33.08
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (4.51) | (5.96) | 2.33 | — |
—
|
| ’22 | (2.37) | (4.69) | 3.78 | (5.28) |
(8.57)
|
| ’21 | (2.93) | 0.05 | 4.11 | 3.25 |
4.48
|
| ’20 | (0.30) | 0.50 | (0.10) | 2.76 |
2.86
|
| ’19 | 1.60 | (0.48) | (0.03) | 3.71 |
4.80
|
| ’18 | (2.54) | (0.20) | (0.71) | 0.14 |
(3.31)
|
| ’17 | 0.06 | (0.38) | 0.90 | 0.33 |
0.92
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (4.99) | (6.66) | 1.76 | — |
—
|
| ’22 | (3.22) | (5.47) | 3.10 | (5.91) |
(11.50)
|
| ’21 | (3.34) | (0.23) | 3.65 | 2.64 |
2.72
|
| ’20 | (0.47) | 0.36 | (0.10) | 2.41 |
2.20
|
| ’19 | 1.32 | (0.75) | (0.18) | 3.60 |
3.99
|
| ’18 | (2.78) | (0.34) | (0.87) | (0.08) |
(4.07)
|
| ’17 | (0.23) | (1.20) | 0.72 | (0.23) |
(0.93)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (0.06) | (0.05) | 0.01 | — |
—
|
| ’22 | 0.30 | (0.07) | 0.04 | 0.02 |
0.28
|
| ’21 | (0.01) | (0.01) | 0.01 | 0.05 |
0.04
|
| ’20 | (0.03) | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
0.10
|
| ’19 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
0.16
|
| ’18 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.27 | 0.03 |
0.33
|
| ’17 | (0.05) | (0.01) | 0.48 | 0.01 |
0.43
|
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 4.06 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9.69 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 344 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.32 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 109.50 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 60.73% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.52) | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.30%) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9.28 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.45 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.36 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 0.28 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.26) | — | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.09) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.35) | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.87 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
Book Value/Sh
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 32.59 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 31.00 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.68 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.14 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.83 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (26.97) | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (8.57) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.94) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Capex
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (11.50) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
FCF
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 54.24 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 23.23 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 17.20 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 93.40 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6.60% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
ROA
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1.06%) | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 10.58% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
ROE
|
Luna Innovations (LUNA), a niche player in photonics and fiber optic sensing, has powered through macro storms with revenue rocketing from $41.9 million in 2016 to $109.5 million in 2022, and analysts eyeing $156 million by 2025 at a 14% CAGR. Gross margins bulged to 60%+, revenue per employee doubled, and productivity metrics scream efficiency—yet profitability swings wildly, hammered by acquisition debt that ballooned 1,000% to $23 million and capex binges. The stock? A brutal 70%+ plunge from 2021 peaks, trading at dirt-cheap forward EV/Sales of 0.2x versus peers’ 4-6x, implying 430% upside to consensus targets amid 5G, data centers, and defense booms.
But here’s the rub: while forecasts promise EPS doubling, FCF flipping positive, and macro tailwinds like CHIPS Act cash and geopolitical optics demand, LUNA’s history of EBT losses, working capital blowouts, and zero insider action raises eyebrows. Is this a screaming bargain or a debt-laden trap in a rate-rigged world? Volatility in earnings and small-cap derating have decoupled price from fundamentals, setting up asymmetric rewards for contrarians betting on execution over euphoria.
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